Marc W. Melaina, National Renewable Energy Laboratory
A variety of studies have estimated the cost of limited refueling availability to consumers who may be considering the purchase of a hydrogen vehicle. Consumers faced with limited refueling availability will be more reluctant to purchase a hydrogen vehicle, and this reluctance can be expressed as a cost penalty that influences a consumer’s decision to purchase a vehicle. Previous studies have expressed this cost penalty as a function of the percent of existing stations providing hydrogen, with a high level of refueling availability imposing little or no cost penalty. However, the generality of cost results attained through previous studies is restricted due to various limitations of their methodologies. Moreover, the usefulness of the “percent of existing stations” as an independent variable is limited due to the wide range of station densities (stations per square mile) found in major urban areas; these densities can vary by a factor of two in cities of comparable size and population density. These present analysis develops a cost function that relies upon urban station density as the independent variable, allowing for a more consistent and general representation of refueling availability. The analysis is based upon survey results indicating the geographic distribution of gasoline refueling volumes in 84 major urban areas. Results vary between cities, but generally suggest that coverage at 5 stations per 100 square miles incurs a penalty of $500-$700, 25 stations per 100 square miles incurs a penalty of $100-$300, and 50 stations per 100 square miles incurs a penalty of $20-$100. As a reference, achieving these three levels of refueling availability in 439 major urban areas (which included 68% of the total U.S. population in 2000) would require, respectively, approximately 5,500, 27,000 and 55,000 urban refueling stations
