In his executive order S-3-05, Governor Schwarzenegger highlighted the potential impacts of climate change on California and established greenhouse gas reduction targets for the State. These targets include reducing emissions to 2000 levels by 2010, achieving 1990 levels by 2020 and reaching an 80% reduction below 1990 levels by 2050. These targets are among the most ambitious by a major world economy. Given the expected growth in population and energy service demand in the state, meeting these targets, especially the 80% reduction by 2050, will be quite challenging.

The goal of this study is to identify technology and other potential options for meeting this ambitious, long-term goal in the transportation sector, including light-duty, heavy-duty, off-road, rail, aircraft and marine vehicles. It is more challenging to achieve greenhouse gas emission reductions in the transportation sector than in other sectors, such as electric power, because of the stringent performance requirements of mobile power and the infrastructure and technology requirements associated with many alternatives. Given past support from the legislative and executive branches in California, hydrogen is an attractive option for helping to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the transport sector through reductions in fuel carbon intensity and improvements in vehicle efficiency.

The analysis focuses on three main areas: travel demand, fuel efficiency and fuel carbon intensity. The study highlights the various options that could be used to meet the emission reduction targets and creates "snapshots" of option combinations that allow the State to meet the targets across the various transportation modes. The analysis elucidates the extent to which hydrogen vehicles can contribute to greenhouse gas reduction goals and characterizes additional steps that may have to be taken in the transportation sector. The study is based upon spreadsheet models of the transport sector, which are used to help identify the challenges, potential benefits and tradeoffs for hydrogen fueled vehicles and other options associated with meeting the transport-related greenhouse goals for California.

GHG emissions in California (MMTCO₂e)

	1990 Levels	2007 Levels	2050 Goals
Total	425	~500 (+18% vs. 1990)	85 (-83% vs. 2007)
Transport	175	~205	35