Introduction:

Optimism without foresight:  In the 1990's, there was an investment boom for fuel cell developers as hopes were high that competitive intense research by auto makers would soon produce viable fuel cell vehicles.  That any real market penetration for FCVs relied upon a fully-developed hydrogen infrastructure was a concept not addressed by these players.  Knowledgeable skeptics like Joseph Romm highlighted the issue providing a strong argument against embracing the FC dream.

The Hydrogen Economy is not Necessary for FC Commercialization:  CHP, backup, and niche applications have created a global excitement around fuel cells which is totally independent of a ‘Hydrogen Economy'.  When and if the hydrogen economy will arrive remains an unknown, as storage and transportation costs and problems continue to slow progress.  But FC players that have chosen other paths will find that some pursuits are opening up a diverse array of potential billion dollar markets. Sample Analyses:

Near-Term Applications Show Promise and Progress:  With commercial FCV's still 15+ years away, Ballard through partner Ebara wisely joined Toshiba, Sanyo and Panasonic in the Japanese Stationary Demonstration Program.  Surprisingly, even Toyota has now entered the program.  Recent multi-MW orders logged by Hydrogenics (data center backup) and Ballard (forklifts) have raised PEMFC penetration to new heights. Gas utilities and petroleum  refiners as FC promoters:  Japan's support for FCs has cauterized prospects for fuel cell viability in Japan's residential CHP market.  The program has given Tokyo Gas, Osaka Gas, and Nippon Oil the incentive to produce their own fuel-specific reformers and place nearly a thousand 1kW CHP FCs with more companies positioned to join.

EU, SOFC, and microCHP:  Plug Power and German partner Vaillant have already entered the small CHP market with NG PEMFC's.  But more versatile self-reforming SOFCs could proliferate with 3 years.  UK's Ceres Power has contracted with both Centrica and BOC-Linde Group and efc with Baxi to build microCHP systems.  German Staxera, Danish Topsoe, and the UK's CFC Ltd. are all building mass production facilities for solid oxide cells. FuelCell Energy, Inc.: FCE has reached the threshold of commercial viability with its molten carbonate FC which is self-reforming and forgiving of fuel impurities.  FCE has successful installations employing natural gas, propane and biogas.

Summary:

I will provide an intelligence-based analysis of hydrogen infrastructure-independent FC markets. Major points covered will include:

Competitive strategies of utilities in fuel cell commercialization.  Examined will be EU and Japanese gas companies, global oil companies, and power providers. Analysis of the Progress exhibited by all manufacturers Key supporting exhibits including an analysis of hydrocarbon fuels. A look at the free fuel market: Nuvera's and NedStack's chlor-alkali installations and HydroGen's potential for PAFC success.

Critical insights into the viability of creative strategies such as CFCL utility-controlled  microCHP SOFC systems. The potential for SOFC scaling up and out, providing omni-fuel capacity for applications from 100 W soldier power to 100 MW generating stations. Discussion of the intense pursuit of JP-8 fuelled FCs by the DoD